Coronavirus Update

Register For The Covid Vaccine


New Mexico: https://cvvaccine.nmhealth.org

ARIZONA:https://covid-cochisehealth.hub.arcgis.com/pages/vaccines
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Part 1 - Prepared By Dr. Howard Topoff


In order to report the number of active cases by zip code, we must

know the number of cases released from isolation. With the recent

increase in cases in Cochise County (1,868 between Dec. 1st and

Dec. 18th) we are no longer able to keep up with this measure.

See Dr. Petersen’s summary for latest updates.


We Hope To Be Back To More Accurate Numbers Later This Month


Problem Reporting Local Cases

Our rule for posting Covid cases is to only publish cases that are reported by Cochise or Hidalgo County. If someone in our area gets tested (positive) in Willcox, it is supposed to be reported by where they live. But in rare cases it might be reported as from Willcox. Several people have contacted me, saying they HEARD about cases (anywhere from 1-6 cases) in Rodeo or Portal but, to us, that is only hearsay. What is the correct number? If anyone who tested positive contacts me personally, then I would surely post the information (without names, of course).

We all DO want to know about local cases, but I'm sure you understand why we can’t just publish and change the numbers based upon hearsay.

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Best Information We Have Right Now

Douglas: 3989

San Simon: 30

Rodeo: 5

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January 25, 2021

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Deaths By County Due To Covid-19

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NEW MEXICO - January 25, 2021

Coronavirus Hot Line: 1-855-600-3453

The state is offering help to New Mexico seniors. The Aging and Long Term Services Department says if you’re a senior or a disabled adult who cannot access groceries to call the number 1-800-432-2080 due to the coronavirus.

Leave a message with your name, telephone number, and the city/town you reside in. Aging and Long Term Services will be in contact with you within 2 hours of your call if not sooner.

Cases In Hidalgo County:308 (Deaths: 9)

Rodeo: 7 Animas: 19 Lordsburg: 283


January 25, 2021

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January 25, 2021

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States With The Most Covid-19 Cases

January 25, 2021

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Countries With The Most Covid-19 Cases

January 25, 2021

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Part 2 - Prepared By Dr. Eskild Petersen




Update 1/25/2021 at 9 AM


New cases have dropped in the last week.

While these indicators are positive, it’s still too early to know if the U.S. has definitively turned a corner, or if it’s simply plateauing before another spike. The biggest wild cards are the new, faster-spreading variants, which are finding footholds across the country, even as the vaccination campaign is moving more slowly than anticipated.

Mortality rates are not expected to peak until later this month and the death toll may reach 500,000 by the end of February.


US has reached 25 million cases and the world will have 100 million cases today


We now have a national strategy for controlling Covid-19



Thenational strategylooks to ramp up the manufacturing of Covid supplies, increase the nation’s testing capacity, and reduce the spread of the virus — while reaching out to the workers and communities of color disproportionately affected by the virus.

Among the orders was one requiring mask-wearing in airports and in many “trains, airplanes, maritime vessels, and intercity buses.” Another directed federal agencies to issue guidance on how to safely reopen schools and businesses while protecting workers and teachers. Other actions included calls for better data collection systems, programs to find more Covid treatments, and the establishment of a health equity task force focused on populations hit hard by the virus.




The next several weeks will tell us how much holiday celebrations and the riot by a mob in D.C. will contribute to surges in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. So far 38 Capitol Police Officers have been infected as well as more than 200 National Guard Members.


Arizona hospitals, with the state having by far the highest hospitalization rate per capita, have been able to handle the influx. That is an amazing accomplishment.


The new variants of Covid-19, especially the South African, are worrisome and might result in new surges. In Denmark where 100% of isolates are sequenced 70% of new infections are with the UK variant. In US we only sequence 0.3% so we do not know where we are standing.


Moderna Says Its Vaccine Work on New Variants

But the shot produces fewer protective antibodies against the mutation found in South Africa, and the company is working on new versions.



Vaccine availability in Cochise and Hidalgo.


The websites where you can sign up for vaccinations are listed above by Dr. Topoff. The Arizona sign-up process is very primitive and cumbersome. The New Mexico process appears to be streamlined and easier. Note that the browser and email address you use make a difference.


If you are a Walker Family Medicine patient and you are 65 or older a call will get you an appointment for the Moderna Vaccine.


For the rest of us the Moderna vaccine is available for Phase 1A and Prioritized 1B (See below for overview) at the Medicine Shoppe in Willcox with many appointments for next month.


Here is the link for people to register:

https://medicineshoppewillcox.as.me/schedule.php. It is a very easy to use link that shows all of the available appointments on one screen.



Arizona


New Mexico





Arizona and New Mexico data:

Data tables and graphs are updated M, W, F.


The threat of Covid-19 spreading in our communities is still real. Portal and Rodeo have been relatively spared so far with each having had 5-7 cases. 1 new case in San Simon/Portal 1/24/21. Also, Arizona is struggling and leads the nation in per capita cases, deaths and hospitalizations.



Rodeo: 2 new cases 1/21

Arizona, for the second time, is shattering its records and reporting more new cases each day per capita than any other state. Around 4,500 Arizonans were hospitalized with the virus as of Sunday — more than in July, the state’s previous peak.


You can make it less likely that Covid spreads in or communities by following common sense when interacting with other people: outside is better than inside, no crowd is better than crowd, crowd is better than large crowd, observe social distancing and use a mask.


At the heart of dismal U.S. and Arizona coronavirus responses, a fraught relationship with masks. Not wearing a mask is like driving drunk. Not wearing a mask means that you put other people at risk.

If it’s not blatantly obvious, masks are the linchpin in both preventing you from spreading coronavirus and preventing you from getting COVID-19












The country has recorded up to 400,000 new cases a day and has set a hospitalization record with over 132,000. Last 7 days has been encouraging as deaths, cases and hospitalization are starting to fall.




Arizona

New Mexico




Deaths are extremely high but possibly levelling off.



There is some good news:

A new administration brings new energy and a national strategy for how to deal with the epidemic. Science and scientists will now be at the forefront of decision making.


Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are approved for EUA by FDA and are both being distributed in the US

Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine was approved for use in UK on 12/30/20


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus&link_location=live-reporting-story



There are now 4 vaccines that are showing great promise - 95% effective. Pfizer vaccine works in older people -94% effective here.

AstraZeneca effective in elderly as well.

The “Pfizer” COVID-19 vaccine was mainly developed by a German Company BioNTech with clinical trials, distribution and regulatory help from Pfizer in the US and Fosun in China. BioNTech is founded by 2 Turkish German scientist.


The Covid vaccine developed by Moderna and NIH shows a similar nearly 95% protection. ‘Absolutely remarkable’: No one who got Moderna’s vaccine in trial developed severe COVID-19


New variants of Covid-19


Worryingly, the Brazil and South African variants do appear to have changes which let it evade some of our natural immune response.

There's no evidence yet that it can evade the vaccine.

New variants will become common place.



https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/briefing/trump-election-raffensperger-julian-assange-costume.html


With the new variant being more infectious (50%) it has never been more important to wear a mask.





Status of vaccines

Countries where different vaccines are used


How are we doing with vaccinations in US, Arizona and New Mexico

Operation WARP Speed unfortunately has become more of a slow walk.








State of the epidemic in US:

We have 25 million cases and over 400,000 reported deaths from the coronavirus pandemic. We have the highest caseload and number of deaths in the world by far.


The global picture is also grim with a total confirmed cases reaching 100 million today and more than 2 million deaths.


Nearly every country has struggled and made mistakes, but the U.S. is in a class by itself.


`

There is an amazing difference between Canada and US:


Data for Arizona and New Mexico with emphasis on Cochise and Hidalgo Counties




https://covidactnow



Arizona has the highest cases per person in the country.



In Arizona there are marked racial/ethnic differences in infection rates and mortality




Cochise County, AZ

Cochise County is doing better than most of Arizona. Douglas and Willcox are areas to keep an eye on.








https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavirus-cases.html




New Mexico Data:





In New Mexico there are marked racial differences in infection rates and morality. Note how the Native Americans are affected disproportionally.



Hidalgo County.

Hidalgo County had6 new cases in last week










Metrics for comparing AZ to NM and CA.

Overall New Mexico has handled the epidemic better than Arizona. Actually, Arizona is the undisputed worst state in US with regard to Covid-19 – highest new cases, highest deaths and highest hospitalizations per capita by far.



  1. US Data

Hospitalizations, cases and deaths are still extremely high





There is a marked racial/ethnic difference in both cases and death

The toll of the virus in the United States has fallen disproportionately on poorer people and groups that have long suffered discrimination. Black and Latino residents of the United States have contracted the virus atmuch higher ratesthan white residents.



https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics



Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an all-time high and deaths are very high.





How do we compare to other countries? Not good!


Comparisons of US versus Germany, UK and Canada







  1. What can we do to prevent Covid-19 from spreading?


Face masks are not political statements but sound public health measures.

More than 100 countries in the world require masks in public because they endorse masks as effective in preventing COVID-19



COVID-19 is not just a respiratory infection but a systemic infectious disease. It infects lungs, blood, heart, liver, kidney and intestinal tract. People die mainly from respiratory failure, but many deaths are caused from heart involvement. Diabetes, obesity, chronic lung disease, hypertension and cardiovascular disease are risk factors for severe disease. All ages get Covid-19 but the severity and mortality are higher in age 65 and older.



What are the treatments available for Covid-19

There are three broad approaches being investigated:

  • Antiviral drugs that directly affect the coronavirus's ability to thrive inside the body
  • Drugs that can calm the immune system - patients become seriously ill when their immune system overreacts and starts causing collateral damage to the body
  • Antibodies, either from survivors' blood or made in a lab, that can attack the virus


Coronavirus Treatment


The New York Times has an excellent site for tracking drug treatments

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-drugs-treatments.html


There is no cure yet for Covid-19. And even the most promising treatments to date only help certain groups of patients and await validation from further trials. The F.D.A. has not fully licensed any treatment specifically for the coronavirus. Although it has grantedemergency use authorizationto some treatments, their effectiveness against Covid-19 has yet to be demonstrated in large-scale, randomized clinical trials.

We will update and expand the list as new evidence emerges. For details on evaluating treatments, see theN.I.H. Covid-19 Treatment Guidelines. For the current status of vaccine development, see ourCoronavirus Vaccine Tracker


The New York Times also has an excellent site for tracking vaccine development

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html



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How To Wash Your Hands

It's generally best to wash your hands with soap and water. Over-the-counter antibacterial soaps are no more effective at killing germs than is regular soap.

Follow these steps:

  • Wet your hands with clean, running water — either warm or cold.
  • Apply soap and lather well.
  • Rub your hands vigorously for at least 20 seconds. Remember to scrub all surfaces, including the backs of your hands, wrists, between your fingers and under your fingernails.
  • Rinse well.
  • Dry your hands with a clean towel or air-dry them.

How To Use An Alcohol-Based Hand Sanitizer

Alcohol-based hand sanitizers, which don't require water, are an acceptable alternative when soap and water aren't available. If you use a hand sanitizer, make sure the product contains at least 60% alcohol. Follow these steps:

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Howard Topoff 2011