After July’s record hot and dry conditions plagued the start of the monsoon, August saw precipitation pick up across Arizona and temperatures moderated slightly. The upper-level ridge of high pressure (also known as ‘Four Corners High’) never quite got in the right position for very long, which overall suppressed typical monsoon thunderstorm activity through the month.

Even with an assist from Tropical Storm Hilary, August precipitation totals were still largely unimpressive and below-average across much of the state. Only far northwest and northeast Arizona observed above-average rainfall. Temperatures were a bit cooler than July, but August was still much warmer than average across Arizona. These meager monsoon precipitation totals so far have led to short-term drought conditions creeping back in across Arizona, with moderate drought now covering most of southern Arizona.  

The monsoon that never really got started will continue to weaken in September and give way to a fall weather pattern, as attention turns to the strengthening El Niño event underway in the Pacific Ocean. The NOAA-CPC is already indicating an increased chance of above-average precipitation for much of Arizona in the upcoming winter season. (HAH)

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